Excel Ease of Use
PrecisionTree is a true add-in to Microsoft Excel, integrating completely with your spreadsheet. Browse, define, analyze—while never leaving Excel. PrecisionTree nodes, branches, and arcs are placed directly in your model, and values appear in the formula bar. Context-sensitive right-click menus and the PrecisionTree toolbar make learning and navigating PrecisionTree a snap.
How PrecisionTree Works
Build a Decision Tree
Decision trees provide a formal structure in which decisions and chance events are linked in sequence from left to right. Decisions, chance events, and end results are represented by nodes and connected by branches. The result is a tree structure with the "root" on the left and various payoffs on the right. Probabilities of events occurring and payoffs for events and decisions are added to each node in the tree. With PrecisionTree, you’ll see the payoff and probability of each possible path through a tree.
You can add PrecisionTree functions to any cell in a spreadsheet and can include arguments that are cell references and expressions - allowing great flexibility in defining decision models. You can also collapse and restore branches to the right of any given node for simplicity and easier navigation through the tree.
Analyze Your Results
PrecisionTree determines the best decision to make at each decision node and marks the branch for that decision TRUE. Once your decision tree is complete, PrecisionTree’s decision analysis creates a full statistics report on the best decision to make and its comparison with alternative decisions.
PrecisionTree can create a Risk Profile graph that compares the payoffs and risk of different decision options. It displays probability and cumulative charts showing the probabilities of different outcomes and of an outcome less than or equal to a certain value.
Cumulative Risk Profile graph
PrecisionTree can also perform a sensitivity analysis by modifying the values of the variables you specify and recording the changes in the expected value of the tree. You can change one or two variables at a time. Results include sensitivity, tornado, spider, and strategy-region graphs.
2-way sensitivity graph
Policy Suggestion Report – A reduced version of the decision tree that displays only the optimum decisions in your model. It includes a Policy Decision Table which lists each decision in a model, the probability of arriving at that decision, and the benefit of making the correct choice for that decision.
Policy Suggestion report
Strategy Region Graphs – One-Way Strategy Region graphs display the expected values for each decision over the range of one variable. Two-Way Strategy Region graphs show you which decision is optimal over the range of two variables.
Unlimited tree nodes – For your largest models, PrecisionTree Industrial allows decision trees of unlimited size.
Use PrecisionTree with the Entire DecisionTools® Suite
PrecisionTree was designed to work with our other DecisionTools Suite products @RISK, TopRank®, RISKview™, and BestFit®. Take any model you have analyzed in PrecisionTree and then use @RISK to perform a powerful Risk Analysis. Add @RISK probability distribution functions right in your existing decision tree. Take real-world data and use BestFit to find the distribution which best fits your data, or create your own distribution by drawing it in RISKview. Use them in @RISK to realistically represent uncertainty. Then run a full Monte Carlo simulation on your Decision Analysis model! You'll have a distribution of possible results, along with the likelihood of them occurring, for the optimal decision identified by PrecisionTree. Then bring in TopRank to run a detailed What-If Analysis on the same tree. The same spreadsheet model, three powerful analyses - all with the DecisionTools Suite. With the DecisionTools Suite, you will be prepared to face the risks in any situation!
Compatibility: PrecisionTree is compatible with Excel versions 2000 through 2007 |
