- Have you ever seen a financial spreadsheet representing multimillion-dollar ventures containing only best case, worst case, and most likely scenarios?
- Have you worked in situations where marketing, R&D, engineering, and other key decisions were based on "best guess" estimates of factors like demand, market share, and effects of competition?
If your answers are Yes, you need: @RISK for Excel.
@RISK changes all that. @RISK lets you see all possible outcomes in your situation - and tells you how likely they are to occur! What this means for you - the decision maker - is that you finally have, if not perfect information, the most complete picture possible. You will see what could happen, how likely it is to happen, and therefore be able to judge accordingly which risks to take and which ones to avoid. While no software package can predict the future, @RISK can enable you to choose the best personal strategy based on the available information. That's not a bad guarantee! @RISK 4.5 for Excel is the world's most powerful Risk Analysis tool!
How to use it?
@RISK is an add-in to Microsoft Excel. As an add-in, @RISK seamlessly integrates with your spreadsheet, adding risk analysis to your existing models. Working with @RISK is as easy as working with your spreadsheets, so there's almost no learning curve!
@RISK uses a technique known as Monte Carlo simulation to show you all possible outcomes. Running an analysis with @RISK involves three simple steps:
1. Define Uncertainty: Start by replacing uncertain values in your spreadsheet with @RISK probability distributions. These @RISK functions simply represent a range of different possible values that a cell could take instead of limiting it to just one value.
2. Pick Your Bottom Line: Next, select your outputs – the "bottom line" cells whose values interest you. This could be potential profits for a new product launch, insurance claims payout, disease recovery rate, or anything at all.
3. Simulate: Click the "Simulate" button and watch. It's that easy! @RISK recalculates your spreadsheet model hundreds or thousands of times! Each time, @RISK samples random values from the @RISK functions you entered, places them in your model and records the resulting outcome. The result: a look at a whole range of possible outcomes, including the probabilities they will occur! Almost instantly, you will see what critical situations to seek out – or avoid!
Simply by running a simulation, @RISK takes your spreadsheet model from representing just one possible outcome to representing thousands. With @RISK, you can answer questions like, "What is the probability of profit exceeding $1,000,000?" or "What are the chances of losing money on this investment?"
Present Results with Stunning Graphs
@RISK provides a wide range of graphs for interpreting and presenting your results to others. Histograms and cumulative curves show the probability of different outcomes occurring. Use overlay graphs to compare multiple results, and summary graphs to see risk over time. Right-click menus and handy toolbars make navigation a snap. You can also generate a one-page, ready-to-print Quick Report of statistical results and graphs!
Identify the Most Important Tasks
@RISK provides you with Sensitivity and Scenario Analyses to determine the critical factors in your models. Use Sensitivity Analysis to rank the distribution functions in your model according to the impact they have on your outputs. See the results clearly with an easy-to-interpret Tornado diagram, then take appropriate management action.
| Industry Applications |
| Aerospace |
Manufacturing |
| Defense |
Medical |
| Environment |
Oil/Gas/Energy |
| Finance |
Pharmaceuticals |
| Government |
Securities |
| Insurance/Reinsurance |
Transportation |
NOTE: For more information about @RISK for Excel, please take a look to the PDF of @RISK Brochure and the detailed @RISK Fact Sheet. Click here to view the @RISK tutorial. |
